We are both, at SSWM, trader and investor. Tend to love the opportunities that trading in a choppy market provides, but dread the anxiety that declines of 5% plus can bring. We trade based on value with the end goal of generating income and building wealth. If we find value in stocks that are oversold, that's like buying a company on sale. Everyone loves a good sale, an opportunity to get things at a reasonable discount. If things appear a little overbought, take some profits and have dry powder ready when a decline indicates a value you are willing to pay that price for. Behavioral finance would indicate, as we have written on multiple occasions, that people sell on fear at the bottom and buy on greed at the top. Completely losing track of the market drivers: Markets correlate with the direction of earnings, earnings are driven by economic activity, economic activity is driven by the slope of the yield curve, yield curve driven by Fed interest rates, Fed interest rates driven by rate of inflation.
What drove the most recent decline of the S&P to a low of 1,820 last week, a retreat of 9.8% from the September 19th all-time hight of 2,019? Fear of a global economic slowdown and the possible Central Banks reaction, falling oil prices and ebola. Could any of these concerns have real merit and impact future earnings? You have to asses the data quickly and make decisions based on your findings. Trade on the emotions, build wealth on the facts.
What drove the most recent decline of the S&P to a low of 1,820 last week, a retreat of 9.8% from the September 19th all-time hight of 2,019? Fear of a global economic slowdown and the possible Central Banks reaction, falling oil prices and ebola. Could any of these concerns have real merit and impact future earnings? You have to asses the data quickly and make decisions based on your findings. Trade on the emotions, build wealth on the facts.
And when the S&P recovered to close the current week at 1,964, what was the driver? Global economic slowdown and the possible Central Banks reaction, falling oil prices and ebola. Looks like the Fed will be a little more dovish, including delaying the end of QE and pushing out any intent on increasing interest rates. Oil has stabilized after recent declines that had some speculating it could drop to $30 a barrel. We seem to be beginning to feel more at ease with ebola. It has become part of our daily life. A new case develops, someone is quarantined, the media shows pictures of a car wrapped in plastic, patient recovers, we forget. More people will die of the flu this season, that's a real concern and blow to productivity.
Did we learn anything that will quell our fear and greed? Probably not. We do know that stocks do not go up forever. Corrections, or declines, are healthy for the markets. They provide a cure for complacency, keep us on our toes, keep us humble. Large selloffs have historically provided a baseline for moves higher. Corrections keep us on point and remind us to revisit the data, how are company earnings, how is our economic health?
Statistically, we should expect a slide about every 18 months. If we go over that timeline, we should test our tolerance for a drop. It has been over 36 months since the last correction (a decline of over 10%). Quick drops are typical in a rising bull market. Bear markets, declines of 20% plus, usually decline at a more gradual pace. Bear markets are dressed in complacency and/or wild hysteria and euphoria. One huge driver of markets is any comments, or change, on monetary policy. Know the Federal Reserve, listen to what they say and read what they write. Are you going to panic at the next 5% drop, cash out, run for cover and look for alternatives? Sua Sponte.
Statistically, we should expect a slide about every 18 months. If we go over that timeline, we should test our tolerance for a drop. It has been over 36 months since the last correction (a decline of over 10%). Quick drops are typical in a rising bull market. Bear markets, declines of 20% plus, usually decline at a more gradual pace. Bear markets are dressed in complacency and/or wild hysteria and euphoria. One huge driver of markets is any comments, or change, on monetary policy. Know the Federal Reserve, listen to what they say and read what they write. Are you going to panic at the next 5% drop, cash out, run for cover and look for alternatives? Sua Sponte.